World Politics · resolved market
Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54dc73acf09274a7bab0e3ccf2537884f39e914e71ecf8e548af08bcaf03b3db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa18…ea9dbacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…9b0abacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 1c | 3,578$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 3,429$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…4b51backed Yes | 3c | 2,256$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed Yes | 4c | 1,954$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 1,821$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 5c | 570$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 9c | 555.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 3c | 526.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 4c | 498.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…e77abacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 16cpaid | +267.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x450d…8736backed Yes | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 263.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.