World Politics · resolved market
Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e5ac2c4ea870dc876f489405d9b9e7d6524c6dba8543364d2bbf1ceef6c746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 10c | 9,466$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 6,080$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,834$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…21debacked No | 44c | 1,824$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…525bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,785$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 62c | 1,162$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.14 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…7fccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…a7e7backed No | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed No | 68c | 588.41$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…1094backed No | 49c | 426.66$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…18abbacked No | 52c | 411.44$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 38c | 381.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…cf33backed No | 52c | 308.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Yes | 10c | 304.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 53c | 300.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 7c | 297.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 50c | 277.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +441.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…5140backed Yes | 59c | 261.69$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…8d1cbacked Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 20c | 234.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…5b41backed No | 78c | 225.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 22c | 225.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…0b7bbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…1a58backed Yes | 16c | 191.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 14c | 179.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…8ba9backed Yes | 14c | 164.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…9356backed No | 77c | 155$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…ed60backed Yes | 21c | 130.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…5c19backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…8af8backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 29c | 85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 79c | 81.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…56e0backed No | 38c | 78.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…aee9backed Yes | 26c | 66.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 36c | 59.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed No | 70c | 58.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…4ba5backed No | 52c | 56.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…925cbacked Yes | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…d0e8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…d8f9backed Yes | 58c | 49.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 69c | 44.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…934fbacked Yes | 55c | 44.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…81eebacked Yes | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…7c8dbacked Yes | 58c | 32.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…ec5ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…2d6cbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…c4fdbacked Yes | 58c | 27.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd75…5dd0backed No | 77c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.