World Politics · resolved market
Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5425b389292bbad47d0fe3a047fa1fa78d492230084446b23ce780fed7e5a9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x108e…d5d0backed Yes | 1c | 9,793$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 9,104$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.78 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 5,451$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,375$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 4c | 2,132$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,041$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,013$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 928.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a7…4cb6backed Yes | 3c | 867.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…4a29backed Yes | 20c | 851.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 835.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 10c | 738$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 17c | 646.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…c183backed Yes | 60c | 447.11$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 3c | 433.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…4cd2backed Yes | 8c | 390.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…4b41backed Yes | 3c | 371.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…8110backed Yes | 10c | 362.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 17c | 345.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a8…6745backed Yes | 4c | 337.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…8434backed Yes | 4c | 319.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a5…1617backed Yes | 4c | 267.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 19c | 263.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…eb28backed Yes | 78c | 255.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 8c | 255$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…09d5backed Yes | 12c | 252.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Yes | 21c | 240.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…a3d6backed Yes | 21c | 240.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…5746backed Yes | 10c | 197.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 20c | 191.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…cd8abacked Yes | 11c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6a…f493backed Yes | 17c | 175.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…2353backed Yes | 23c | 156.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 12c | 147.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…8426backed Yes | 18c | 113.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaf…5cfdbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…134cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bb…f1f3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…5f83backed Yes | 16c | 91.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450d…8736backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…ee15backed Yes | 20c | 70.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…c7d8backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.