World Politics · resolved market
Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e9d5508e0b1b4060ac03c6f6b076d7a65d3245ce9b005c816d9a512c61cb11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 3,134$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,883$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked No | 79c | 1,809$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 50c | 1,644$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee8…e198backed Yes | 35c | 1,453$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed Yes | 13c | 1,441$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…b781backed Yes | 38c | 1,376$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 35c | 1,162$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.78 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,138$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…46cfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,134$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 51c | 1,007$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.88 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 47c | 927.75$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.66 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…4b51backed Yes | 9c | 833.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 4c | 663.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 609.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 31c | 593.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 49c | 557.33$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 56c | 473.03$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70a…8482backed Yes | 39c | 401$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +128%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…40c0backed Yes | 53c | 390$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +403.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…337bbacked Yes | 56c | 354.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 43c | 345.75$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a5…d4aabacked Yes | 34c | 291.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b28…df08backed Yes | 47c | 230.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…fac3backed Yes | 50c | 216.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…9356backed Yes | 45c | 206.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…1094backed No | 50c | 191.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 55c | 182.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…c183backed Yes | 55c | 179.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…695fbacked Yes | 48c | 167.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…7cbebacked No | 62c | 166$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…08cabacked Yes | 53c | 151.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 49c | 145.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3325…e563backed No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…925cbacked Yes | 19c | 103.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…7783backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…5f4ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…f98bbacked Yes | 49c | 96.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed Yes | 55c | 90.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 56c | 80.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…0089backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…cdb7backed Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…a44bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…3097backed Yes | 47c | 75.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 44c | 64.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…b19dbacked Yes | 64c | 62.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…fc1abacked Yes | 36c | 61.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed No | 63c | 47.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…f5bebacked Yes | 22c | 45.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…3f8bbacked Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…2263backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a679backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…2b8abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…53b6backed Yes | 30c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77c…ce3cbacked No | 56c | 35.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…0236backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…021cbacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…232cbacked Yes | 49c | 34.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 62c | 33.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…d492backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…dfbbbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…5b90backed No | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…5486backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.