Ukraine · resolved market
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4727f17403578f6dcde55e284c0c62fa2b773bf14f9ea1478426b26f0e5a439d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 0c | 18,945$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 0c | 16,391$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 10,570$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 11c | 9,933$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 17c | 7,933$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,062$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,646$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…4496backed Yes | 9c | 5,204$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 4,914$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed Yes | 8c | 4,500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 4,096$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 9c | 3,744$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…86c3backed Yes | 26c | 3,619$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 8c | 3,242$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 2,852$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,700$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…12d1backed Yes | 11c | 2,585$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…8051backed Yes | 24c | 2,056$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,947$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…7eb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,799$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 8c | 1,781$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 28c | 1,751$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 9c | 1,637$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,499$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Yes | 7c | 1,478$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 1,332$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,263$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,082$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…07d4backed Yes | 12c | 920.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…c35fbacked Yes | 3c | 811.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 8c | 799.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 14c | 648.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 631.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…a6c3backed Yes | 8c | 588.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…6a3bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…aa20backed Yes | 11c | 489$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacec…c12bbacked Yes | 8c | 472.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…195abacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 7c | 371.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 344.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…9fe8backed Yes | 7c | 341.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…baf5backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…d459backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…25f7backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…2ab5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf727…4affbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 181.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…eca4backed Yes | 8c | 178.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 170.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…0410backed Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…11cbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…3885backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…5fbabacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…d634backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…5fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.