World Politics · resolved market
Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef5c543ab0f6bf9f4343d72275b1b9dd65098695d99d7faba6397d05e141bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 22c | 1,800$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 19c | 1,758$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.95 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 12c | 1,304$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,167$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 965.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 17c | 850.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 22c | 811.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 79c | 785$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 24c | 704.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 27c | 600$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 17c | 597.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 19c | 501$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 75c | 500$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 384.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 23c | 374.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 12c | 326.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…1329backed Yes | 38c | 239.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 21c | 235$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 22c | 228.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 198$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 158.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 77c | 155.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 151.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 77c | 142$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c62…df09backed Yes | 22c | 137.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 18c | 136.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 122$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe195…ff12backed Yes | 27c | 77.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 68.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 59c | 32.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.