World Politics · resolved market
Will Bloc Quebecois win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d4fb31a3994b2161427069776b78c7e5f5d5606557b8af1d51c1821fe50f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd2d…2fe3backed Yes | 43c | 40,422$17,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,381.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…563bbacked No | 57c | 40,422$23,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,381.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…3734backed Yes | 35c | 34,775$12,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,171.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…918ebacked No | 65c | 34,775$22,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,171.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 13,069$10,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.21 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 23c | 9,743$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.89 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 6,648$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.03 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 5,912$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.28 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 72c | 1,709$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.23 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 1,708$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.95 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 17c | 1,277$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 381 | 23.9%91 W · 290 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 25c | 1,252$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,210$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 1,122$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.39 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 23c | 818.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.37 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 516$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 38c | 213.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 37c | 207$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 190.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 39c | 180.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed No | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 167.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 37c | 145.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 127.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 97.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 79.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 50.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…6701backed No | 60c | 32.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…386fbacked No | 60c | 22.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.