World Politics · resolved market
Will Bloc Quebecois win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3121ccbd5863461082784ae81345e3a137657da5ef1cd85b6a9167b8f60785ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 14c | 7,751$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.79 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 4,532$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 1,001$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 9c | 960$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 6c | 937.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 15c | 786.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 4c | 733.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 5c | 687$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 574.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 6c | 349.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 298$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 283.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 15c | 241$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.