World Politics · resolved market
Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96dbceee0503779618226f05c3afa863f53df0ebc09f5bba5f4adc5acb585873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed No | 79c | 44,689$35,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,304.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…8cf8backed Yes | 21c | 44,689$9,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,304.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 37c | 2,903$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.24 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 28c | 2,107$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.71 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 25c | 1,457$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.4 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 32c | 767.31$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.42 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 21c | 650$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 35c | 600$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 559.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.58 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 29c | 531.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.28 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 64c | 514$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.92 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 49c | 512.31$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.26 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 432.45$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 20c | 327.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.12 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 25c | 259.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.62 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 42c | 227.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.06 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 22c | 183.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed Yes | 34c | 170.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 28c | 156$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 20c | 151.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 145$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 41c | 142$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 127.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 102.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 36c | 100.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c62…df09backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 89.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2351…9a98backed Yes | 20c | 85.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked No | 74c | 85.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 58c | 68.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 26c | 61.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 73c | 55.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 50.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb2…c770backed Yes | 32c | 33.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd830…108cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…49f2backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 45c | 28.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.