NHL · resolved market
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc65ecf789a16d66ff7cb47630daff79a7a026a3377feb11ae9374bcb9e581a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 5c | 7,525$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.28 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 14c | 6,804$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.24 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 18c | 5,728$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.47 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 3,909$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.82 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 13c | 1,299$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 16c | 1,283$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes | 22c | 800.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 11c | 789.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 715.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 11c | 547.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 10c | 502.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cd…f9f0backed Yes | 37c | 500.08$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…37c5backed Yes | 24c | 499$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 20c | 452.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…87abbacked Yes | 60c | 451.59$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…4e6fbacked Yes | 23c | 441.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 22c | 408.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 13c | 376.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 20c | 262.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 235.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 11c | 224$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 211$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +405.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 17c | 179.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…3633backed Yes | 25c | 177.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 78c | 113.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 95.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…a09ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 15c | 68.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 25c | 62.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Wild win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Seattle Kraken win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the St. Louis Blues win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.