Venezuela · resolved market
Venezuela intervention by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1acf8c182ff5bb61973bebcef828debce12a1aa950ec005e14d2aab1915f040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 4,536$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,603$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 11c | 1,882$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 9c | 1,800$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 13c | 1,765$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 7c | 1,274$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf61…914ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65debacked Yes | 8c | 1,020$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 10c | 761.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 9c | 738.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 14c | 642$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…6966backed Yes | 11c | 503.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 8c | 470$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 447.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…247bbacked Yes | 13c | 369.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed Yes | 13c | 366.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 10c | 339.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4cc2backed Yes | 16c | 244.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 12c | 216.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…8e3cbacked Yes | 7c | 169.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…7694backed Yes | 17c | 147.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…4d82backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.