Premier League · resolved market
Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd046f3a64bd87f3b743e638ad00680af2a34dc193f164677c8c92de39e6fe9d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 6c | 4,614$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.24 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,737$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 2,232$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,906$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,540$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 13c | 874.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 15c | 555$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9882backed Yes | 8c | 474.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…eca4backed Yes | 10c | 345.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1914…0b0fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…85e7backed Yes | 15c | 93.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…ee01backed Yes | 12c | 91.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…8d57backed Yes | 12c | 88.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…8bc4backed Yes | 14c | 77.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?this page
- Will Australia win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Canada win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will France win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Japan win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will another country win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.