Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f61cf160d2fdcb21d3079f210610a58abfb97fc60e0e49ff1c6f9ca8efc012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,074$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 77c | 1,772$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.88 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 5c | 1,619$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 23c | 1,338$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 76c | 1,290$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…92b5backed Yes | 7c | 1,281$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,235$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 1,137$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…7177backed Yes | 19c | 784.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…844abacked Yes | 8c | 588.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 14c | 511.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 10c | 499.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 24c | 410.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes | 16c | 374.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…edd8backed Yes | 3c | 314.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 73c | 301.11$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 28c | 278.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…6f4dbacked No | 75c | 253.91$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 76c | 235$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…a4f6backed No | 74c | 231.58$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 75c | 230.87$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 27c | 210.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…45e5backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…2408backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…3fc6backed Yes | 12c | 161.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 27c | 115.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…b6abbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 29c | 103.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…244fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…8c05backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…1b71backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…fe62backed Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…734fbacked Yes | 27c | 96.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…e922backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…6837backed Yes | 15c | 85.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed No | 73c | 79.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 66c | 79.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed Yes | 25c | 78.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…7e9ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…4d60backed Yes | 34c | 58.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…c93bbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…c8b4backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…ee93backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…4a2ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8a…3082backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed No | 75c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.