Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ae71740247df5cb99ce3221ac3496a285704197676bd493ec0fba8799d2be8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 11c | 3,777$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.83 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 821.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 394.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 368$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 6c | 235.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 230.44$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 31c | 189.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 166.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 40c | 114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 92.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 21c | 48.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?this page
- Will 12-15 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?Yes won
- Will 16-19 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?No won
- Will 20-23 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?No won
- Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?No won
- Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.