Token Launches · resolved market
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8f92e081151484ec03524f84f39e8b536872fe5fa3ea47935fbf2bbdfb8219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 21c | 6,058$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.08 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,240$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 51c | 1,395$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,003$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 78c | 814.55$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes | 14c | 707.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +136%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…4df2backed Yes | 28c | 704$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 25c | 630.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.57 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 482.78$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.46 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 16c | 476$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…76a2backed No | 65c | 462.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…e42cbacked Yes | 74c | 283.13$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 261.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…f9d6backed Yes | 45c | 232.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 33c | 180.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 149.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab2…0c5ebacked Yes | 79c | 143.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 122.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…6bebbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…d171backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…734dbacked No | 34c | 86.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 78.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 18c | 77.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…31bfbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…540ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +296.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…e612backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.