TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$352,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6078…3c75backed Yes0c25,436$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22b…57ddbacked Yes0c25,183$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c21,181$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.041320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a80…203ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac73…ecb1backed Yes0c19,217$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…32bcbacked Yes0c16,976$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3d…7c9abacked Yes0c15,060$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bb…ae21backed Yes0c11,942$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…0f4fbacked Yes0c11,651$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes1c9,184$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c3,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes4c2,702$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.172817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c2,029$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9734129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes13c2,007$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.945824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed No77c1,949$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…98acbacked Yes5c1,804$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed Yes7c1,378$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes24c1,314$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.2724861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes12c942$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+80.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes12c789.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+28.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes7c742.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.391414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes9c629.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.017425.7%19 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c598.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.77296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes28c565.43$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes23c521.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ca…053cbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes5c500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes29c452.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.245326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes5c443$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.54395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x926a…a59abacked Yes27c373.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes6c360.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.491625%4 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+93.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c333.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.465510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes16c273.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5616833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x258b…c632backed Yes8c239.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+65.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes24c226.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No74c210$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x946f…6a27backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.668133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341c…8eaebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec8…d41dbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7563…7cf1backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f7…b51dbacked No73c68.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No73c62.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes23c62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.044833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No72c49.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.012347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c43.07$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3345035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a0f…3f80backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.