Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d5e9df909ba1f07bbc835d29b277794922bf8bd2aaabb5f6b3050770d2ad49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $451,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes | 9c | 56,699$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 49,404$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71f…523bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,005$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…3c75backed Yes | 0c | 16,666$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353d…050cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,540$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…182fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,589$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf4…5877backed Yes | 0c | 11,674$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…897abacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…7150backed Yes | 0c | 10,058$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 6,543$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.43 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 4c | 3,803$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…fa60backed Yes | 3c | 3,544$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…f201backed Yes | 4c | 2,521$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,023$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…51e2backed Yes | 9c | 1,932$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 820.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…0c64backed Yes | 1c | 732.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 9c | 532.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 2c | 500.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 8c | 450$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 406.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…6e3dbacked Yes | 28c | 270.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator?this page
- No Marco Rubio replacement as Florida senator?No won
- Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?Yes won
- Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will James Fishback be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Keith Rabois be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
- Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.