Movies · resolved market
Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8d14636fb261b71ccc50e58b7a3a18d068ff25190842491f4ddf93a1553b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $861,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,460,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $861,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 27,955$17,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,180.74 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 15,127$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…928abacked No | 0c | 12,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 35c | 10,004$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed No | 22c | 8,843$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked No | 2c | 8,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 40c | 6,341$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed No | 3c | 5,882$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked No | 2c | 5,638$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 4,206$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed No | 8c | 3,822$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 3c | 3,801$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked No | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +190%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked No | 1c | 2,901$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ceacbacked No | 1c | 2,848$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 57c | 2,559$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.16 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 24c | 2,320$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 3c | 2,292$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 18c | 2,194$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.22 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked No | 1c | 2,088$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 58c | 1,934$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.99 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 3c | 1,930$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed No | 14c | 1,815$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 2c | 1,637$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 19c | 1,606$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 1,588$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 3c | 1,347$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed No | 19c | 1,300$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 2c | 1,164$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,001$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.95 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 18c | 873.83$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 730$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.4 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 61c | 642.04$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed No | 3c | 637.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 9c | 452.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 25c | 424.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 62c | 421.25$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…fb3ebacked Yes | 60c | 413.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 48c | 399.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 29c | 395.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed No | 40c | 390$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 15c | 372.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 68c | 368$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 317.7$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 20c | 311.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 41c | 229.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 12c | 205.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 177.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed No | 7c | 161.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 38c | 159.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 22c | 150.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…6694backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 67c | 121.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 30c | 110.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…a541backed No | 38c | 109.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 34c | 104.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…6414backed Yes | 67c | 90.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…f66ebacked Yes | 65c | 84.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…c4b9backed No | 39c | 84.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 33c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…5ca6backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…1f48backed No | 38c | 76.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…2122backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…9e65backed Yes | 65c | 73.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef1…1becbacked No | 39c | 69.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…dc56backed No | 39c | 68.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 55c | 63.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…24a8backed Yes | 61c | 60.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…fd64backed Yes | 63c | 56.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa246…8137backed Yes | 66c | 53.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…195bbacked Yes | 62c | 53.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…38b0backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…ac20backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…9d73backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…a471backed Yes | 61c | 48.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…bf37backed No | 38c | 48.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…04b2backed Yes | 61c | 45.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…5e61backed No | 37c | 44.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 25c | 42.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…d119backed Yes | 63c | 41.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…4947backed Yes | 62c | 40.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…d87fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…577cbacked Yes | 63c | 39.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 49c | 36.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed No | 37c | 34.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…e59dbacked No | 39c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…5867backed No | 38c | 32.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…d451backed Yes | 62c | 30.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…0c0bbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…e47cbacked No | 41c | 29.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…c4abbacked No | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32e…09dbbacked Yes | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…155ebacked Yes | 65c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $25-30m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross under $20m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.