Movies · resolved market
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061a0c2ab562330ff150623bd5b265e5c020827b4c340ff1f4343bab58eec3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 1c | 2,316$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 6c | 2,194$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 2,189$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,996$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 11c | 1,382$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 6c | 952.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 8c | 789.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes | 8c | 751.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 5c | 665.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +190%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 11c | 555$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 12c | 450.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 380.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes | 5c | 341.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 7c | 323.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 16c | 240.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 17c | 126$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…e392backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 13c | 104.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 75c | 95.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…5ca6backed Yes | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…1f08backed Yes | 28c | 38.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $25-30m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' gross under $20m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.