Middle East · resolved market
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2210c0991c3d0a54651d31a5d209fd1cf203a524dc51770c6464410dcc53ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 3c | 13,315$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.83 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 27c | 2,519$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.04 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 21c | 1,650$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…32e5backed No | 78c | 1,619$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 10c | 1,429$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 61c | 1,326$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.35 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 1,146$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 1,079$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 1,065$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 65c | 1,035$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.82 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 803.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 60c | 784.34$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 778.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 40c | 550.93$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 32c | 506.23$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 10c | 500.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 68c | 489.94$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 471.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes | 7c | 305.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…cfa0backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…c99dbacked Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 73c | 295.84$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…1e50backed Yes | 37c | 268.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 265.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 42c | 240.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…81afbacked Yes | 9c | 235.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 21c | 223.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 68c | 220.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes | 12c | 215.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…e6cdbacked Yes | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 8c | 202.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed Yes | 36c | 200.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 27c | 176.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…2f0bbacked No | 64c | 155.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 68c | 149.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 21c | 146.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 13c | 139.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d5ecbacked No | 72c | 138.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…3115backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 39c | 128.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…f0afbacked Yes | 42c | 121.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a669backed Yes | 27c | 118.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…c630backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 74c | 104.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 36c | 94.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Yes | 25c | 82.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…b480backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…ce4ebacked Yes | 19c | 79.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed No | 69c | 78.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed No | 62c | 64.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed No | 59c | 52.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…2f22backed No | 75c | 51.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…4bfdbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…7461backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…c6a8backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 33.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10ed…dc1abacked No | 67c | 30.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…cf4cbacked No | 59c | 27.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…4e0bbacked No | 77c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…95abbacked No | 66c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…7fdbbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7b…0499backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa7…2145backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…d275backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…3513backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.