Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0590ee8929a1178e5490b8a98915d2e3697b5b67ec7872cf3d102814db65e5ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $972,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,097,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $972,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes | 17c | 129,054$22,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,557.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked Yes | 21c | 79,628$16,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,577.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed Yes | 15c | 38,598$5,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,789.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 14c | 30,593$4,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,151.42 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 3c | 25,590$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.13 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 80c | 19,024$15,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,835.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 14c | 16,044$2,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.76 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…e402backed Yes | 3c | 11,566$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 24c | 8,297$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.01 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,965$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.47 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…b961backed Yes | 24c | 6,626$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,972$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.98 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 2c | 5,867$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 17c | 5,659$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,288$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 58c | 5,117$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 16c | 5,033$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Yes | 15c | 4,150$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,148$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.9 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 74c | 4,123$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 4,006$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.03 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 3,910$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked No | 67c | 3,735$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.37 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,650$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 3,076$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.58 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…f95fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,051$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 7c | 2,969$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,849$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed Yes | 14c | 2,765$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…f111backed Yes | 12c | 2,704$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,662$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8a…1589backed Yes | 14c | 2,287$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 56c | 2,185$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.53 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,920$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.14 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…ac77backed Yes | 19c | 1,717$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…2e88backed Yes | 4c | 1,686$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…45debacked Yes | 4c | 1,665$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…5faabacked No | 53c | 1,568$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…3664backed Yes | 16c | 1,551$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…4c5ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,525$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3f3bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,507$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,501$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.04 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 55c | 1,497$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.05 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…2beabacked No | 64c | 1,435$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,405$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,382$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked No | 79c | 1,259$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,256$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 78c | 1,223$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed No | 79c | 1,146$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 23c | 1,110$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 15c | 1,074$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,055$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 79c | 1,014$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…3013backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…b451backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…acbdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 3c | 999.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 11c | 924.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 69c | 910.06$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.41 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 23c | 885.09$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…6e0dbacked Yes | 4c | 841.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 834.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 825.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 67c | 823.53$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 15c | 812.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…75c3backed Yes | 26c | 804.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 73c | 785.13$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 5c | 759.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 71c | 701.11$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 13c | 670.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…8909backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 8c | 650.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4824backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…24aabacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…425dbacked Yes | 16c | 623.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…f231backed No | 65c | 596.42$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 18c | 595.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…f925backed Yes | 8c | 583.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 77c | 576.62$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 58c | 550$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e337backed No | 61c | 534.44$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 63c | 534$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 42c | 499.3$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.92 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 11c | 488.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 44c | 467.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.