TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$972,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,097,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $972,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes17c129,054$22,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,557.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked Yes21c79,628$16,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,577.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0c…c823backed Yes15c38,598$5,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,789.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes14c30,593$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,151.429815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes3c25,590$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.135836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No80c19,024$15,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes14c16,044$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.767542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c63…e402backed Yes3c11,566$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes24c8,297$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.016137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes5c6,965$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.476011.7%7 W · 53 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7056…b961backed Yes24c6,626$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes26c5,972$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.9851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes2c5,867$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.451711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+91.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes17c5,659$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.55580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+213.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes4c5,288$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.671926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed No58c5,117$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,168.522360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes16c5,033$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.212138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5322…237abacked Yes15c4,150$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes11c4,148$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No74c4,123$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.341752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No77c4,006$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.0321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes10c3,910$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3918641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked No67c3,735$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.375158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes20c3,650$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes20c3,076$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.588220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1173…f95fbacked Yes16c3,051$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes7c2,969$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.715143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes11c2,849$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.55137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0501…7f87backed Yes14c2,765$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fa…f111backed Yes12c2,704$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked Yes4c2,662$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.541030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8a…1589backed Yes14c2,287$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes56c2,185$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.534944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes3c2,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes18c1,920$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.144136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c29…ac77backed Yes19c1,717$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ce…2e88backed Yes4c1,686$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845d…620fbacked Yes15c1,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…45debacked Yes4c1,665$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c1,622$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc729…5faabacked No53c1,568$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…3664backed Yes16c1,551$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7798…4c5ebacked Yes26c1,525$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…3f3bbacked Yes3c1,507$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes20c1,501$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.049831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da7…ba93backed Yes35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes55c1,497$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.055749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf3…2beabacked No64c1,435$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.11060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes12c1,405$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.28825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05fe…764fbacked Yes14c1,382$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked No79c1,259$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes10c1,256$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.593633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed No78c1,223$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed No79c1,146$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes23c1,110$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.86185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x640b…102abacked Yes14c1,100$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.021216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-70%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes15c1,074$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.972825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6481…336cbacked Yes53c1,055$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.15633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No79c1,014$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.186254.8%34 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.45837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…3013backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b5…b451backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ff…acbdbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes3c999.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-85.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes11c924.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.655422.2%12 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No69c910.06$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4110052%52 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed Yes23c885.09$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.571553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0770…6e0dbacked Yes4c841.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes7c834.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592313%3 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c825.19$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes67c823.53$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes15c812.8$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.674022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c4…75c3backed Yes26c804.81$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No73c785.13$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.313246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Yes5c759.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed No71c701.11$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes13c670.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.068137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1406…8909backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked Yes8c650.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-72.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94a…4824backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8371…24aabacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…425dbacked Yes16c623.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e5…f231backed No65c596.42$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes18c595.44$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.233116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fff…f925backed Yes8c583.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed No77c576.62$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.622759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0599…a395backed No58c550$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d4b…e337backed No61c534.44$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+105.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9f…d2b9backed No63c534$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e72…3e8dbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+229.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No42c499.3$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.927142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes11c488.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.431163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes44c467.33$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.15368.3%3 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.