Premier League · resolved market
Will Victor Osimhen join Chelsea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c0841049861ba98c618c9ab419da910d1a4dfc091bda47eb93576df1f217b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,698$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 1c | 3,401$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 47c | 1,182$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.24 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 22c | 1,082$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed No | 50c | 514.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 24c | 476.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed Yes | 17c | 327.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…36d5backed No | 70c | 284.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 78c | 260.4$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 41c | 257.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed No | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…be95backed Yes | 18c | 103.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 53c | 99.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked No | 79c | 78.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 73.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…4b5fbacked Yes | 52c | 65.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…bf2cbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…990ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed No | 50c | 47.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb243…bb21backed No | 64c | 46.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…2f0bbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…e58ebacked No | 77c | 35.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d803backed Yes | 43c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed No | 43c | 24.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 51c | 24.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…cc0dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…9505backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…e68abacked No | 74c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.