MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Guardians Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x058454e7712bd73c063ad9620a3b0ec7cd45f44ae947cb72288c6759bda5934d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Yankees, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Guardians | 11c | 7,782$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yankees | 67c | 2,052$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.16 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Guardians | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…f400backed Yankees | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…005fbacked Guardians | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17b…e734backed Guardians | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…6912backed Yankees | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe912…b30ebacked Yankees | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…6e3bbacked Guardians | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ad…8be9backed Guardians | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…d710backed Guardians | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…9324backed Yankees | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1456…56fabacked Guardians | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…4fd8backed Guardians | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…c9fbbacked Yankees | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…c0e9backed Yankees | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31c…7830backed Yankees | 69c | 1,400$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians | 22c | 1,204$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…ec0bbacked Guardians | 10c | 900$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Yankees | 76c | 675.02$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Guardians | 25c | 539.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yankees | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…e213backed Guardians | 15c | 484.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Guardians | 20c | 401.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…1b0fbacked Guardians | 38c | 398.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Yankees | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 29c | 297.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…6e07backed Guardians | 37c | 271.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…a8aabacked Yankees | 78c | 208.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Guardians | 7c | 208.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Guardians | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Guardians | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Guardians | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…ff56backed Guardians | 24c | 137.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18e…dc17backed Yankees | 79c | 137.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 78c | 134.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Guardians | 12c | 128.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Guardians | 20c | 123.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Guardians | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…cfa8backed Guardians | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…8dddbacked Yankees | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Guardians | 27c | 98.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…2e2bbacked Guardians | 23c | 87.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Guardians | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…f066backed Guardians | 34c | 63.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yankees | 67c | 54.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…b594backed Guardians | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…6707backed Yankees | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yankees | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Yankees | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…039fbacked Yankees | 74c | 23.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…cc32backed Yankees | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4e…8411backed Yankees | 79c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.