Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump list the Gulf Cartel as a terrorist organization before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf941a9c55903fb2ebf4718c2c3dc289497923eabdaa3ff0678b97e48371cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 57c | 1,778$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.95 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 39c | 1,304$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.63 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…9621backed No | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 2c | 1,052$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 10c | 711.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 35c | 580.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…1d2abacked No | 62c | 486.24$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 66c | 461.87$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 402$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 52c | 388.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 229.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 59c | 189.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…f028backed Yes | 70c | 161.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 69c | 156.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 79c | 127.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…aae1backed Yes | 70c | 125.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 26c | 101.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 26c | 65.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 30c | 53.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 41c | 36.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump list the Gulf Cartel as a terrorist organization before April?this page
- Will Trump list Los Zetas as a terrorist organization before April?Yes won
- Will Trump list MS-13 as a terrorist organization before April?Yes won
- Will Trump list the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) as a terrorist organization before April?Yes won
- Will Trump list the Sinaloa Cartel as a terrorist organization before April?Yes won
- Will Trump list the Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization before April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.