UFC · resolved market
Magny vs. Prates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a33231806832051d3bf322d92f9a98e59aad6931a620ebb9751c25189e9276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pratesof Magny, Prates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e3…c7f2backed Magny | 16c | 20,729$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…f3e4backed Magny | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Magny | 15c | 2,762$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.71 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Magny | 21c | 2,562$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Magny | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Prates | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Magny | 17c | 1,343$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Magny | 9c | 698$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Magny | 13c | 678.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…0544backed Magny | 15c | 673.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Magny | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Magny | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Magny | 14c | 387$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…bf90backed Magny | 18c | 375.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Magny | 11c | 361.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Magny | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Magny | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked Magny | 19c | 259.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…420fbacked Magny | 9c | 242.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Magny | 17c | 231.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…f1b7backed Magny | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef2…b9a2backed Magny | 13c | 222.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Magny | 18c | 210.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…7d82backed Magny | 14c | 207.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Prates | 78c | 206.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346f…5b81backed Magny | 13c | 192.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…6b35backed Magny | 13c | 192.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Magny | 10c | 160.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Magny | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Prates | 80c | 148.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Magny | 14c | 133.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Magny | 19c | 125.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…c0a0backed Magny | 16c | 123.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…a406backed Magny | 18c | 111.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349a…c2ffbacked Magny | 20c | 107.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…8510backed Magny | 14c | 104.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Magny | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Magny | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Prates | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Magny | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…de3cbacked Magny | 19c | 96.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Prates | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…47c7backed Magny | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Magny | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…e452backed Magny | 15c | 71.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…2d25backed Magny | 17c | 69.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Magny | 30c | 62.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Magny | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magny vs. Pratesthis page
- Kowalkiewicz vs. GomesGomes won
- Meerschaert vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- Pinheiro vs. RobertsonRobertson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.