UFC · resolved market
Pinheiro vs. Robertson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883644ad13e9a41deec70078ecc520edc023564f684187d9e32a33b07dac40c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Robertsonof Pinheiro, Robertson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Pinheiro | 11c | 3,030$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Pinheiro | 22c | 2,315$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…a38cbacked Pinheiro | 18c | 1,264$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Pinheiro | 18c | 1,263$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.34 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pinheiro | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Pinheiro | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Pinheiro | 22c | 456.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Pinheiro | 17c | 435.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Robertson | 68c | 305.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…79d1backed Pinheiro | 32c | 301.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Pinheiro | 17c | 225.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Robertson | 71c | 155.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked Pinheiro | 21c | 118.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Pinheiro | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Pinheiro | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Pinheiro | 20c | 90.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Pinheiro | 20c | 85.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Robertson | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…925bbacked Robertson | 79c | 63.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…8112backed Robertson | 80c | 62.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…ac8dbacked Robertson | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…ce8fbacked Robertson | 79c | 57.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Robertson | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Pinheiro | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Robertson | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Pinheiro | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Pinheiro | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…6c31backed Robertson | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…0eeabacked Pinheiro | 23c | 44.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ad…553fbacked Pinheiro | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8994…5948backed Pinheiro | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Pinheiro | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Robertson | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Robertson | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…8ca5backed Robertson | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…15eebacked Robertson | 78c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…40dcbacked Robertson | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…6fadbacked Robertson | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…a857backed Robertson | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a9…7b1cbacked Robertson | 80c | 25.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…df88backed Robertson | 80c | 24.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…6167backed Robertson | 77c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…deeebacked Robertson | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0901…e135backed Robertson | 77c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…34aabacked Robertson | 80c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Robertson | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pinheiro vs. Robertsonthis page
- Kowalkiewicz vs. GomesGomes won
- Magny vs. PratesPrates won
- Meerschaert vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.