UFC · resolved market
Kowalkiewicz vs. Gomes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c0d166f265496aa2c13923c239819c5677b2356cd3e11ae0bc622ef34384227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gomesof Kowalkiewicz, Gomes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Kowalkiewicz | 18c | 5,656$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.88 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Kowalkiewicz | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…ab52backed Gomes | 80c | 1,077$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Kowalkiewicz | 20c | 1,043$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Kowalkiewicz | 20c | 965.79$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Kowalkiewicz | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Gomes | 80c | 640.35$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Kowalkiewicz | 13c | 443.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Gomes | 71c | 275.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…79d1backed Kowalkiewicz | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kowalkiewicz | 6c | 269.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Kowalkiewicz | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…a5d0backed Kowalkiewicz | 17c | 188.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Gomes | 79c | 164.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Kowalkiewicz | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Gomes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Gomes | 80c | 121.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked Kowalkiewicz | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…a38cbacked Kowalkiewicz | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Kowalkiewicz | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Gomes | 79c | 87.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Gomes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…83c4backed Kowalkiewicz | 23c | 65.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…925bbacked Gomes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…8112backed Gomes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…40dcbacked Gomes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Gomes | 75c | 57.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Kowalkiewicz | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…6fadbacked Gomes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…5959backed Kowalkiewicz | 21c | 49.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Kowalkiewicz | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Gomes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f94…1a19backed Gomes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…e0dbbacked Gomes | 80c | 28.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…b442backed Gomes | 80c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Gomes | 71c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…0d30backed Gomes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…a857backed Gomes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…e109backed Gomes | 80c | 19.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…df88backed Gomes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Gomes | 71c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…5d4bbacked Gomes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…918dbacked Gomes | 80c | 13.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…1ebcbacked Gomes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Gomes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…deeebacked Gomes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kowalkiewicz vs. Gomesthis page
- Magny vs. PratesPrates won
- Meerschaert vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- Pinheiro vs. RobertsonRobertson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.