Music · resolved market
Will Trump walk out to 50 Cent's "Many Men"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f69f809a3dd31183124549a9d98c459dc4a54ceac98513f5c93fa0dcf910a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 2c | 8,237$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 6,452$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…fe69backed Yes | 8c | 1,066$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…bccfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,008$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7507backed Yes | 7c | 780.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…34a2backed Yes | 8c | 573.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…8069backed Yes | 10c | 550$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 7c | 504.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…f6f2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a5…40cebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…9df4backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…fba6backed Yes | 7c | 285.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…2070backed Yes | 8c | 273.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 11c | 234.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fd…91c7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…196cbacked Yes | 14c | 121.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…e360backed Yes | 19c | 76.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.