Olympics · resolved market
Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2364650652332fb5c900d5d2fcc44c5212127af49e39be8c579f9149b6f5207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 1c | 27,510$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 24,155$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 3c | 22,522$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 20,560$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.38 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0717…0bccbacked Yes | 2c | 18,513$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 2c | 13,805$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 12,757$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,566$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 2c | 12,469$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…d6bdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 0c | 8,582$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ee…fbe9backed Yes | 1c | 6,165$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a5…f95bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,085$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,006$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…410ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,667$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 2c | 4,691$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed Yes | 3c | 3,412$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 2c | 2,181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 2c | 1,593$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 1c | 805.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball?this page
- Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Spain win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will another country win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.