Olympics · resolved market
Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8d74084707f9c600d02520d521a52f63ace9ebb5cfae227358ac269ad09582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 22,779$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 21,789$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 21,140$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 1c | 13,466$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 13,110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,887$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…5231backed Yes | 1c | 7,568$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…9a82backed Yes | 2c | 7,296$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…271dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,141$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 1c | 6,081$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes | 2c | 3,045$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…f7aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,634$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…aa8bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf961…e8bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,114$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 1c | 1,725$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f44…a1eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,410$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 987.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball?this page
- Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will Spain win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will another country win Gold in Men's Basketball?No won
- Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.