TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will another country win Gold in Men's Basketball?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$508,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c51,969$86 inLost-$85.63839.6%8 W · 75 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed Yes0c45,940$46 inLost-$45.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e0…eccdbacked Yes0c36,969$37 inLost-$36.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89c…36f6backed Yes0c21,838$89 inLost-$88.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes0c20,766$21 inLost-$20.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…6126backed Yes0c16,069$16 inLost-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ec…27adbacked Yes1c15,234$165 inLost-$16510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x145b…d6bdbacked Yes0c12,522$50 inLost-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e8…8637backed Yes0c11,552$12 inLost-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1864…bf50backed Yes0c11,324$11 inLost-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd80…84d1backed Yes0c11,324$11 inLost-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes1c10,464$86 inLost-$85.64392.6%1 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fec…2b67backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789e…3956backed Yes1c7,083$69 inLost-$69.14100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes2c6,793$110 inLost-$110.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222e…796fbacked Yes1c5,679$57 inLost-$56.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847d…13d0backed Yes0c4,284$18 inLost-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe286…7735backed Yes1c1,795$12 inLost-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f33…7808backed Yes2c1,500$28 inLost-$27.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes5c1,415$66 inLost-$6680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c1,106$11 inLost-$11.42320%0 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb6…7245backed Yes1c1,023$10 inLost-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.