Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce4529f541a972c181cacaa172b49df58bc3f44cc4c0089d1a2767c7caa0d325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 3c | 5,835$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 7c | 5,200$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,650$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…ecdbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,006$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,952$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,580$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 2,979$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,638$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,144$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 10c | 2,078$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…16a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,618$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 9c | 1,361$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5870…0dd1backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…5ceebacked Yes | 7c | 1,037$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 7c | 998.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes | 1c | 992.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…377dbacked Yes | 5c | 972.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 7c | 757.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 3c | 727.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 2c | 634.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes | 8c | 623.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 3c | 531.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 4c | 466.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 7c | 466.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…48adbacked Yes | 3c | 410.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 247.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…5093backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Yes | 6c | 174.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 9c | 132.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…8af1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2d…358fbacked No | 80c | 14.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.