NFL · resolved market
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4875cbf20f94f13eadcdbe7c98d632bda2a4b7347838825d35904a01fbea134c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 46,677$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 45,206$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 30,173$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9657…bcf8backed Yes | 0c | 26,516$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 3c | 21,742$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.94 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,149$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…f116backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…087fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 23c | 6,752$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.52 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 21c | 6,487$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.64 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes | 26c | 6,004$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552 | 125 | 70.4%88 W · 37 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…e482backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…10a7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…9f8ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,590$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…0652backed Yes | 5c | 3,743$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 28c | 2,593$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.03 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,565$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,524$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,522$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,304$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…8829backed Yes | 34c | 2,193$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,913$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…5a45backed Yes | 8c | 1,302$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 1,284$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x015a…b5cdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,274$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 25c | 840$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 3c | 621.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 542.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…ebfabacked Yes | 21c | 498.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 23c | 436.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…d452backed Yes | 18c | 416.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 33c | 413.06$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…0e57backed Yes | 71c | 381.43$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 362.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c42…8bf8backed Yes | 14c | 355.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 319.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes | 7c | 301.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Yes | 22c | 299.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 30c | 255$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 27c | 223$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 24c | 209.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…5b74backed Yes | 18c | 188.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…09ccbacked Yes | 22c | 179.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 11c | 162.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b1…057ebacked Yes | 27c | 155.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 154.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…8b6bbacked Yes | 22c | 139.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 59c | 125.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…7d3dbacked Yes | 25c | 122.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 34c | 117.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…6935backed Yes | 18c | 112.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 21c | 90.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…a62fbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 29c | 65.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…5a86backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…133bbacked No | 79c | 54.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 60c | 50.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…00d3backed No | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…b541backed No | 79c | 50.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa5…0cacbacked No | 79c | 47.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 61c | 47.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…5613backed Yes | 25c | 45.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…90eabacked No | 79c | 42.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…a311backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Brock Bowers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.