NFL · resolved market
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb846835e618f87a24ccb71be9ce90612b0d3876a7c98ca37c8b5991c5f81af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 77,440$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…0573backed Yes | 2c | 26,519$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,542$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…b139backed Yes | 0c | 15,667$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…2e02backed Yes | 1c | 10,130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 4c | 3,123$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,282$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 1c | 1,776$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 17c | 1,627$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 13c | 642.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 6c | 519.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 24c | 318.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 19c | 312.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 27c | 261.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…455fbacked Yes | 11c | 232.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 34c | 225$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 221.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 29c | 204.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Yes | 8c | 141.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 108.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad4…9259backed Yes | 36c | 82.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 39c | 41.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Brock Bowers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.