AI · resolved market
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969e08d4c0aef660cb54cb7e54e3571e50ce14e69f83f040ade77bf2d2719387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 6,392$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 3,636$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 3,484$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,522$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 10c | 2,323$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,222$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,947$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,901$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…432ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,810$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc303…113ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,728$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 15c | 1,530$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,294$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 3c | 1,028$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…70b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,023$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…c10dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,001$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 990.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2748…6a07backed Yes | 4c | 818.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 4c | 784.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 16c | 633.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 540.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…c50fbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…1bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 484.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 14c | 346.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Yes | 9c | 340.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 6c | 262.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 15c | 243$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 204.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e343backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…4d72backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…525abacked No | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 9c | 186.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 19c | 158.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…d490backed Yes | 14c | 147.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Yes | 8c | 141.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d53…2dc0backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…40fcbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…e3c5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 19c | 113.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d9…5354backed Yes | 21c | 111.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…08fabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…2050backed Yes | 16c | 92.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5e4bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…83a2backed Yes | 15c | 76.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc584…22f7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.