Token Launches · resolved market
Will Fartcoin be listed on a t1 exchange before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79082b71339c2b527401ab49a1e08ca5d4b41dd02553b833e4a44fbb64bfd5ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 507.59$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…81b4backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 51c | 318.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 202.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…4df2backed No | 39c | 186.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 58c | 175.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…3667backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…e612backed Yes | 38c | 133.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 118.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…734dbacked Yes | 46c | 52.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked Yes | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 39c | 39.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a9…5277backed Yes | 61c | 39.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…5260backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…3dfebacked Yes | 67c | 37.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…f9d6backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.