Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde98b62510752813ad86116100c48ac3904a1be42804182bb48d2133c0c8f33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,500$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 31c | 986$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 59c | 932.3$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 73c | 867.83$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 43c | 823.79$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 29c | 808.71$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…4032backed Yes | 44c | 750.34$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 2c | 732$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 12c | 713.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 666.97$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…beadbacked Yes | 32c | 604.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 76c | 552.1$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 55c | 445.51$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 26c | 298.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…1540backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 44c | 189$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…eb25backed Yes | 30c | 169.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…148bbacked Yes | 26c | 151.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 58c | 115.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 40c | 111.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed No | 15c | 111.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…5039backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…256dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8a94backed Yes | 49c | 77.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 44c | 72.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…e05bbacked Yes | 24c | 56.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 56c | 53.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…cb52backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…1e2cbacked Yes | 24c | 42.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…5507backed No | 78c | 36.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…b018backed No | 79c | 33.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…d96bbacked No | 79c | 33.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…d82cbacked No | 79c | 33.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…06a7backed No | 79c | 33.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 43c | 31.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…6cd9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…137fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…f649backed No | 79c | 29.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0795…0eefbacked No | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…a027backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…cfbabacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…7dd4backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed No | 51c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…ea81backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…23f0backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…d6e3backed No | 59c | 22.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…72d1backed Yes | 49c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…4c21backed No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…e30ebacked No | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…871dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922c…0106backed No | 79c | 17.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?this page
- Will Anish Giri win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Ding Liren win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.