Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa5148db5ab633650b2c4d6436d9e9d639b01d00d7a1166041a8069ce7015cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,952$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.53 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 15c | 3,569$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.55 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 25c | 2,881$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 16c | 1,520$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…9980backed Yes | 20c | 1,065$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 49c | 333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked No | 51c | 333$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…5039backed No | 77c | 314.51$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 14c | 213.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 64c | 126$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…64adbacked Yes | 27c | 110.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…44aabacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821e…7478backed No | 77c | 86.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…b515backed Yes | 18c | 68.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 71c | 52.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?Yes won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Ding Liren win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.