Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Gaza before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62380b73d580e991b2e264db58588cf395722f65b82822e4f8776a36b50ae89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 12,314$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.63 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 11c | 2,962$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.41 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 2,637$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 2,495$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,753$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 13c | 963.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 944.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed No | 71c | 916.46$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…22abbacked No | 57c | 789.2$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 74c | 689.09$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 75c | 626.69$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 57c | 618.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.99 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 15c | 577.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 24c | 558.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 10c | 512.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 62c | 499.83$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 484$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 72c | 461.64$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 32c | 460.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 63c | 450$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 42c | 429.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 5c | 401.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 30c | 400.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…c50fbacked Yes | 28c | 353.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed No | 58c | 342.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.37 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a6…5a52backed Yes | 12c | 330.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…a028backed No | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 40c | 292$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…4dd5backed No | 57c | 264.07$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 224.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865b…a912backed Yes | 28c | 201.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc38…03c4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…9ce5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…de71backed Yes | 10c | 143.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 12c | 122.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…dd11backed Yes | 27c | 122.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 67c | 105.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…4b00backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…5256backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed No | 78c | 88.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 75c | 66.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a9…1b4cbacked No | 77c | 60.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…5c8dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…f9d0backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…820ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9103…db25backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…ac04backed No | 71c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.