Premier League · resolved market
Will Vinicius Junior join a Saudi club?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b45baa95c4d8c45bc476b43505c3bf23082116f42789fdd7321564cfae6a39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 4c | 3,002$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Yes | 10c | 410.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed Yes | 6c | 365$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 19c | 209.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 9c | 120.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 74c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…4b5fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 75c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed No | 79c | 39.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…2ed4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.