World Politics · resolved market
Edmundo González arrested before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefcb72b3449932a4a4d45fba67721d68585f4b85503eb6fd2ba71076389ffb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 20c | 11,339$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 75c | 5,935$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 5,678$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 77c | 5,424$4,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 16c | 4,357$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 37c | 3,809$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 3,495$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.32 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 17c | 2,887$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,675$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,093$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.11 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 75c | 1,805$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,676$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 75c | 1,436$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 43c | 1,036$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.69 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 20c | 988.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 25c | 964.47$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 15c | 942.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 15c | 920.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…405abacked Yes | 29c | 870.89$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 821.91$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 61c | 811.12$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.91 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 28c | 771.92$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.14 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 49c | 750$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…88dbbacked No | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 30c | 513.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…2b81backed Yes | 10c | 473.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 62c | 400.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…8a47backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 30c | 389.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 33c | 357.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 48c | 353.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.46 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 299.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 29c | 283.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…1a33backed Yes | 52c | 252.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 54c | 250$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 74c | 205.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…8341backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 66c | 148.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 27c | 131$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…2f0bbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…1a05backed No | 78c | 110.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 25c | 108.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c1…d979backed No | 76c | 104.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…289dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…e500backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…3209backed No | 76c | 85.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…a4d7backed No | 59c | 82.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…eea0backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 18c | 73.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…3963backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 66c | 63.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 50c | 56.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…7aaabacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 72c | 43.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…3a79backed Yes | 25c | 41.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…67bcbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 37c | 27.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…ac29backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.