Movies · resolved market
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f6d3012166c355f6a648b7463f2de92f876a6fb84aa95127c2f6e55b6aae98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 1c | 14,042$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 0c | 6,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,691$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 6c | 4,695$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 0c | 3,829$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,601$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 11c | 2,290$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.98 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,868$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,597$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,288$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 13c | 661$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 14c | 650.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 14c | 643.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 568.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yes | 10c | 515.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 2c | 476.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 420.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 5c | 393.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…bbcabacked Yes | 13c | 390.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce9…54a8backed Yes | 7c | 376.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Yes | 4c | 310.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 10c | 213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…1a8abacked Yes | 8c | 130.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…11c7backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 73c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.