Movies · resolved market
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690dfb0010b2a5521bf98de7368c6f1ca3fa7df10b56219faed68e4fe48a2c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 8c | 9,473$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.39 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 14c | 5,562$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.51 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,968$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 4,885$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.06 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 3,922$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.01 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 29c | 3,602$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.91 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 11c | 3,590$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 8c | 3,156$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,045$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.64 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 17c | 2,825$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.94 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 1c | 2,658$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,393$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.94 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,230$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,289$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 22c | 1,198$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.89 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 9c | 1,050$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 921.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 36c | 869.8$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 16c | 647.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 590.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 9c | 570.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 31c | 547.75$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 8c | 470.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 29c | 420.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Yes | 5c | 409$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 14c | 376.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 23c | 355.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 339.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…dae3backed Yes | 35c | 226.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 12c | 222.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…e72dbacked Yes | 23c | 213.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 9c | 150.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 22c | 147.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 19c | 118$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…60a3backed No | 65c | 110.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 106.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 16c | 89.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…79e8backed Yes | 25c | 60.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…532abacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 69c | 48.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 32c | 46.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2093backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.