Movies · resolved market
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc6d0fc549eb6144722576c84b50c65039e34abd67a6966dede7ef97ece6556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,086$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,074$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 10c | 6,084$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.31 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,834$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,485$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 14c | 2,189$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 15c | 2,078$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.13 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,994$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…3f18backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 21c | 960.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 19c | 785$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 665.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 18c | 653.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 11c | 603.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…f72ebacked Yes | 13c | 419.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 409.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yes | 7c | 281.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 75c | 259.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c5b3backed Yes | 16c | 127.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 115.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce9…54a8backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 11c | 104.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 12c | 103.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…9f53backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…1397backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 12c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…6143backed No | 80c | 49.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.