Movies · resolved market
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa9a338289504681b61fa223c0b0221b30f059af4e69135b76310c4b756d64d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 2c | 17,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,149$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 11c | 3,731$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 6c | 3,217$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,989$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yes | 5c | 2,860$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 9c | 2,830$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.51 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,044$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 11c | 1,996$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,835$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 1,832$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 5c | 1,394$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,291$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…1021backed Yes | 13c | 1,240$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 1c | 1,161$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 5c | 811.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 6c | 662.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…b13ebacked Yes | 11c | 565.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 561$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 7c | 517.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe603…94b4backed Yes | 6c | 422.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…bbcabacked Yes | 12c | 419.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…6414backed Yes | 14c | 418.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 3c | 355$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…e392backed Yes | 7c | 345.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 329.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…1a8abacked Yes | 16c | 308$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…e76cbacked Yes | 10c | 275.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 228.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 10c | 227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa714…d689backed Yes | 22c | 222.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 23c | 216.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…5867backed Yes | 11c | 211.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 8c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…dd8dbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…944abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.