Token Launches · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0965c626f8b4a5cc06176ccea4d69f43c579a4bc521feb2fb3f5484e3a51040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,564$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes | 6c | 2,932$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 7c | 2,679$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 4c | 2,540$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 9c | 2,510$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,324$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 22c | 2,106$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,998$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 11c | 1,855$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 698.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 3c | 375.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 284.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…f1ddbacked Yes | 10c | 191.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…8cc0backed Yes | 20c | 100.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…9061backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 18c | 64.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Yes | 64c | 42.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 31c | 35.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e1…30dcbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in March?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.075 in March?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in March?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.125 in March?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.