Premier League · resolved market
Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10858ad2c19d927b935778aad415a9154f4b4c7f0d73d7562b6af43595257034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 14c | 1,850$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 77c | 1,650$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…d526backed Yes | 10c | 1,279$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 1,021$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…3913backed Yes | 21c | 1,006$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Yes | 12c | 810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…af7ebacked Yes | 16c | 672.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…6e61backed Yes | 25c | 657.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…4787backed Yes | 12c | 642$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…dc66backed Yes | 16c | 622$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…4a54backed Yes | 25c | 604$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 16c | 584.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…de01backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 15c | 405.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…16b1backed Yes | 25c | 400.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 17c | 400.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…1dc0backed Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9882backed Yes | 5c | 303.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…7537backed Yes | 23c | 201.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…f9e2backed Yes | 14c | 192.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…446dbacked Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…c026backed Yes | 15c | 172$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…893cbacked Yes | 15c | 167.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…99e6backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…3a2bbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…8057backed Yes | 16c | 127.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…b13dbacked Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…2194backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 93.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…db26backed Yes | 15c | 93.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc760…b4e5backed Yes | 12c | 84.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…3da1backed Yes | 13c | 84.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…99edbacked Yes | 13c | 84.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…9098backed Yes | 29c | 65.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…48cbbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457d…ca82backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed No | 77c | 38.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?this page
- Will Egypt win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Israel win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Paraguay win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?Yes won
- Will another country win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will the U.S. win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.