Premier League · resolved market
Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748183a0c8c459d993137bdf42fc5a422a8114055131f58a422d5594a8ef5d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 3,531$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.88 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 8c | 2,506$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6010…496cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 12c | 800$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 7c | 661.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 9c | 650.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…fc78backed Yes | 9c | 399.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 11c | 207.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8846…1c20backed Yes | 11c | 175.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?this page
- Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Egypt win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Israel win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Paraguay win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?Yes won
- Will another country win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
- Will the U.S. win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.