Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Yemen before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7d74eeb5c8e9ee6f642a190e445ae853f54e3e36d9e290de7dafb54f8c3feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 36c | 2,762$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.06 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 43c | 1,029$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.91 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 47c | 920.94$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.37 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 67c | 889.02$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31c…7830backed No | 77c | 771.14$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 34c | 770.84$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 57c | 721.25$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 714.85$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.62 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Yes | 32c | 652$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 74c | 606.3$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 55c | 586.07$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.98 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…e00cbacked Yes | 79c | 577.22$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 49c | 565.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.07 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…109bbacked Yes | 43c | 551.87$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 27c | 519.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 37c | 503.36$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…1c7bbacked Yes | 61c | 471.2$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 57c | 437.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 31c | 415.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.26 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 30c | 405$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 69c | 338.21$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed Yes | 58c | 259.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 74c | 225$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 24c | 220.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.71 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 214.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…612abacked Yes | 26c | 195.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 38c | 195.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 62c | 195.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…07c4backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 75c | 148.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…09f1backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 29c | 108.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…9a91backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 25c | 77.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…31debacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 35c | 62.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…cafcbacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…c7bcbacked Yes | 67c | 59.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 58c | 52.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 60c | 47.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked No | 54c | 42.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…35eabacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 23.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 74c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 76c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…82e5backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.