CS2 · resolved market
Will SAW win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62c27119e87d53f08ac6f42ef1b505686c3d38484055fbfd319353fe5b9303ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 35c | 999.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 558.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 64c | 417.25$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 35c | 270.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 36c | 256.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…b946backed Yes | 35c | 201.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 39c | 126.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…4032backed Yes | 36c | 77.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…9fa1backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…19d9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c08…c134backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SAW win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?this page
- Will BIG win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
- Will BetBoom Team win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
- Will FlyQuest win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?Yes won
- Will M80 win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
- Will ODDIK win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
- Will Wildcard Gaming win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
- Will another team win ESL Challenger Atlanta 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.